VoterVoice Action Center

 

Vote Image 2018



Ten Races to Watch

    • The Governor’s race: Since the day he secured a victory in the May primary, Republican Scott Wagner has trailed incumbent Governor Tom Wolf in the polls. Most polls show Wagner dragging far behind and down by as much as 20 points. Polls proved to be radically unreliable, however, during the 2016 election, when Donald Trump defied political science to secure a victory. While it certainly looks like another four years for Governor Wolf, there’s always the opportunity for a last-minute surprise. Watch for high Republican turnout in Philadelphia suburbs and southwestern counties for a tightening race.
    • U.S. Senate race: While almost every candidate is now eager to jump on the Trump bandwagon, Congressman Lou Barletta has been there since the beginning. As one of the earliest endorsers of Trump in 2016, his loyalty paid off when Trump offered him the head of the U.S. Department of Labor. Barletta ultimately turned the job down to face two-term incumbent Senator Bob Casey. While polls show Barletta struggling, recent vicious personal attacks by Casey have been met with shame, even from fellow Democrats. Because of his strong defense of the President, this race will be the ultimate litmus test for Trump in Pennsylvania as he looks to 2020.
    • 177th House district: The 177th House district, which encompasses portions of northeast Philadelphia, has been represented by Republican John Taylor since 1985. Prior to that, the seat was solidly Democratic and now, with Taylor’s retirement, Democrats are looking to get that seat back. Taylor is one of only two Republicans who represent a portion of the City of Philadelphia and has been a crucial negotiator with moderate Democrats on a number of issues.  The district has a large bloc of Polish voters, who are being courted by Republican Patty “Pat” Kozlowski. If Republicans manage to keep this seat, it will be a huge blow for House Democrats, who are seeking to capitalize on a “blue wave.”
    • 38th Senate district: In 2012, former police officer Randy Vulakovich won a special election to represent the 40th state Senate seat in Allegheny County. Since then, Vulakovich came under fire for a series of controversial votes, including support for tax increases and organized labor. In May, Vulakovich was blindsided by Republican Jeremy Shaffer, who ran on a hard-right, conservative platform and defeated the incumbent. Now Shaffer, who was heavily supported by the Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania (CAP) – a conservative advocacy group – will face Lindsay Williams, a far-left Democrat.  The district will be losing a moderate Republican and November’s election will show whether the North Hills area of Allegheny County is getting more progressive or more conservative.  This race is a crucial test for the Pittsburgh area, which is evolving rapidly.
    • 105th House district: House Judiciary Chairman Ron Marsico was first elected to the 105th House district in 1988, representing portions of Dauphin County that surround the City of Harrisburg.  After thirty years, Marsico is leaving the House and Republican Andrew Lewis is aiming to replace him. Lewis narrowly lost to Sen. John DiSanto in 2016 and briefly ran for Congress earlier this year prior to the redistricting fiasco. Dauphin County has emerged as one of the most purple counties in the Commonwealth and Lewis is locked in a tight battle with Democrat activist Eric Epstein.  This race could show Dauphin County’s emergence as a Democrat stronghold or reinforce it as one of four Republican bastions in southcentral Pennsylvania.
    • 10th Senate district: There is perhaps no county in more evolution than Bucks County.  The longtime Republican stronghold has changed drastically over the past decade. Southern Bucks Republicans are notoriously labor-friendly and far more moderate, which northern Bucks Republicans are mainstay conservatives. With Sen. Chuck McIlhinney’s decision to retire this year, the 10th Senate district is a match-up between conservative Rep. Marguerite Quinn and moderate Democrat and former state House member Steve Santarsiero. The race is a test to see the true colors of Bucks County and recent polls have shown Santarsiero with a comfortable lead. The final test on Election Day will be to see if moderate Republicans are willing to sacrifice the seat to Democrats.
    • 28th House district: The old saying is that it’s lonely at the top. While he has no opposition for another term as Speaker of the House, Mike Turzai has to get back to Harrisburg first.  Turzai has represented the 28th House district in the Bradford Woods portion of Allegheny County since 2001. His mercurial personality and ardent defense of conservative social issues has put him at odds with other members of House Republican leadership over the years, but he’s managed to maintain a hold on the caucus. As he struggles to maintain order in Harrisburg, his district is changing with the national political trends, leaving him potentially vulnerable.  Polls have shown Democrat Emily Skopov within just a few points of Turzai with less than two weeks to go.  This race would be a major blow to House Republicans looking to come back to Harrisburg in a united front next year.
    • 10th Congressional district: In response to the 2016 elections, Democrats nationwide have implemented a standard playbook: identify a milquetoast candidate with little baggage and attack Republicans on pre-existing healthcare conditions. Nowhere is this plan more evident than in the 10th Congressional district in Dauphin, Cumberland, and York Counties. Once considered one of the safest Republican districts in the country, Rep. Scott Perry is fighting for his life. Polls show the race as a deadheat between Perry and Democrat challenger George Scott, who highlights his military service, religious background, and his defense of healthcare provisions. This race was also heavily affected by the 2018 redistricting scandal that dramatically reshaped the district. Look for this race to go late into the evening as turnout from the City of Harrisburg will bolster the Democrat and heavy turnout in York and Cumberland Counties will put Perry at ease.
    • 17th Congressional district: While so much has been made of the rise of the far-left, socialist-leaning faction of the Democrat party, 2018 could define a new model of Democrat for elections to come. Earlier this year, moderate Democrat Conor Lamb shocked the nation by defeating conservative Rick Saccone in a special election in southwest Pennsylvania. Despite heavy support from the President and his family, Saccone lost out to a young, motivated, and polished Lamb, who was subsequently redistricted against incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus.  Rothfus has maintained strong support in his district since he defeated Democrat Mark Critz in 2012, but Democrats are looking to grab the seat back. Lamb is enormously popular in the area, has pledged not to support Rep. Nancy Pelosi for a potential Speaker bid, and is strongly pro-Second Amendment. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) recently pulled its funding from this race, signaling that Rothfus may be a sinking ship. If Lamb fulfills the polls that show him comfortably ahead, look for more Conor Lambs to appear across the state in 2020.
    • 157th House district: Perpetually one of the most expensive Republican House districts in Pennsylvania, the 157th district makes up eastern Chester County, the thin red line between rural, conservative Pennsylvania and moderate, suburban Philadelphia. While the seat was solidly Republican until 2008, it was gone back and forth between Rep. Warren Kampf and challengers ever since. Kampf struggles with the emerging political philosophies of the district every cycle and maintains his commitment to rural Chester County. This year, Kampf faces Democrat Melissa Shusterman.  Look for this race to be a predictor of other races across the Commonwealth – the earlier this race gets called, the worse it will be statewide for the losing party.

If You Live In…

ABC Has Endorsed…

For…

In The…

Allegheny County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Rep. Keith Rothfus (R)

U.S. Congress

17th Congressional district

Jeremey Shaffer (R)

PA Senate

38th State Senate district

Mike Turzai (R)

PA House of Representatives

28th state House district

Natalie Mihalek (R)

PA House of Representatives

40th state House district

Valerie Gaydos (R)

PA House of Representatives

44th state House district

Jason Ortitay (R)

PA House of Representatives

46th state House district

Robert Brooks (R)

PA House of Representatives

54th state House district

Armstrong County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Jeffrey Pyle (R)

PA House of Representatives

60th state House district

Donna Oberlander (R)

PA House of Representatives

63rd state House district

Beaver County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Rep. Keith Rothfus (R)

U.S. Congress

17th Congressional district

Camera Bartolotta (R)

PA Senate

46th State Senate district

Aaron Bernstine (R)

PA House of Representatives

10th state House district

Butler County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

134th state House district

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

187th state House district

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Mike Kelly (R)

U.S. Congress

16th Congressional district

Keith Rothfus (R)

U.S. Congress

17th Congressional district

Aaron Bernstine (R)

PA House of Representatives

10th state House district

Daryl Metcalfe (R)

PA House of Representatives

12th state House district

Jeffrey Pyle (R)

PA House of Representatives

60th state House district

Lee James (R)

PA House of Representatives

64th state House district

Clarion County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Donna Oberlander (R)

PA House of Representatives

63rd state House district

Crawford County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Mike Kelly (R)

U.S. Congress

16th Congressional district

Michele Brooks (R)

PA Senate

50th State Senate district

Brad Roae (R)

PA House of Representatives

6th state House district

Parke Wentling (R)

PA House of Representatives

17th state House district

Kathy Rapp (R)

PA House of Representatives

65th state House district

Erie County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Mike Kelly (R)

U.S. Congress

16th Congressional district

Michele Brooks (R)

PA Senate

50th state Senate district

Curtis Sonney (R)

PA House of Representatives

4th state House district

Brad Roae (R)

PA House of Representatives

6th state House district

Parke Wentling (R)

PA House of Representatives

17th state House district

Fayette County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Guy Reschenhaler (R)

U.S Congress

14th Congressional district

Bud Cook (R)

PA House of Representatives

49th state House district

Matthew Dowling (R)

PA House of Representatives

51st state House district

Ryan Warner (R)

PA House of Representatives

52nd state House district

Forest County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S Senate

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Donna Oberlander (R)

PA House of Representatives

63rd state House district

Kathy Rapp (R)

PA House of Representatives

65th state House district

Greene County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Guy Reschenhaler (R)

U.S. Congress

14th Congressional district

Camera Bartolotta (R)

PA Senate

46th state Senate district

Indiana County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Jeffrey Pyle (R)

PA House of Representatives

60th state House district

Cris Dush (R)

PA House of Representatives

66th state House district

Jefferson County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Cris Dush

PA House of Representatives

66th state House district

Lawrence County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S Senate

Mike Kelly (R)

U.S. Congress

16th Congressional district

Aaron Bernstine (R)

PA House of Representatives

10th state House district

Parke Wentling (R)

PA House of Representatives

17th state House district

Mercer County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Mike Kelly (R)

U.S. Congress

16th Congressional district

Parke Wentling (R)

PA House of Representatives

17th state House district

Venango County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

GT Thompson

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Lee James (R)

PA House of Representatives

64th state House district

Warren County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

GT Thompson (R)

U.S. Congress

15th Congressional district

Michele Brooks (R)

PA Senate

50th state Senate district

Kathy Rapp (R)

PA House of Representatives

65th state House district

Washington County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Guy Reschenhaler (R)

U.S. Congress

14th Congressional district

Camera Bartolotta (R)

PA Senate

46th state Senate district

Natalie Mihalek (R)

PA House of Representatives

40th state House district

Jason Ortitay (R)

PA House of Representatives

46th state House district

Timothy O’Neal (R)

PA House of Representatives

48th state House district

Bud Cook (R)

PA House of Representatives

49th state House district

Westmoreland County

Scott Wagner (R)

Governor

Rep. Lou Barletta (R)

U.S. Senate

Dr. John Joyce (R)

U.S. Congress

13th Congressional district

Guy Reschenhaler (R)

U.S. Congress

14thCongressional district

Ryan Warner (R)

PA House of Representatives

52nd state House district

Robert Brooks (R)

PA House of Representatives

54th state House district

Eric Nelson (R)

PA House of Representatives

57th state House district

Justin Walsh (R)

PA House of Representatives

58th state House district

Mike Reese (R)

PA House of Representatives

59th state House district

Voter Voice Action Center